MONTREAL MASTERS 1000 QF - 4/4 = 100%

The 2026 Montreal quarterfinals were:

Ben Shelton def. Jakub Mensik, 6–3, 6–1

Learner Tien def. Daniel Merida, 6–3, 6–2

Rafael Jodar def. Arthur Fils, 7–6, 6–3

Brandon Nakashima def. Luciano Darderi, 6–2, 6–3

🎯 TenELOs predictions: 4/4 = 100%

Getting all four winners correct means:

4 correct out of 4 = 100%

And importantly, this wasn't simply four obvious favourites.

Pre-match betting market was quite interesting: not all four TenELOs picks were betting favourites.

For Shelton–Mensik, the opening odds I found were about 1.85 Shelton vs 1.95 Mensik, so Shelton was only a very slight favourite.

The most interesting one was Jodar–Fils. This wasn't a straightforward favourite winning. ATP noted that Jodar had beaten Fils on hard court only the previous month, while Fils had considerably more Masters-1000 quarterfinal experience. Betting previews described Jodar as a value pick, rather than an obvious favourite. According to TenELOs Fils had higher ELO HARD surface rating, but TenELOs AI Predictor still picked Jodar to win due to his superb form in the last 10 matches played

And Nakashima–Darderi was also competitive enough that analysts were split, although Nakashima was generally the market favourite.

So what does this mean for TenELOs?

The important point is:

TenELOs went 4/4, but it wasn't simply "the four favourites all won."

The strongest evidence is Jodar beating Fils. Jodar was the much more surprising semifinalist from the betting perspective, yet TenELOs correctly selected him.

That's considerably more impressive than, for example, correctly picking four heavy favourites at 1.20–1.30.

My assessment:

⭐ 9/10 for the QF

Check AI Predictor for SF:

Shelton – Tien

Jodar – Nakashima